Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fb0…6293 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$797per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$10
sports 26% −$7
economics 20% −$3
crypto 11% $0
other 8% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 32 -2.9% -12.1% 66% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$2,118) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage232d
Avg bet$797
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 25 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? May 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 22 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 07 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 07 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 07 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $31 −$2 -7%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 28 $20 −$10 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 12? Feb 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 5? Feb 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 17? Jan 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? Jan 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $3,500 −$4 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $3,538 −$4 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $3,552 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $3,066 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $3,066 −$3 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $3,093 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? Jan 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 26? Dec 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 10? Dec 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on December 4? Dec 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 28? Dec 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 20? Nov 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 06 $2,118 −$2 -0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 06 $2,121 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $2,118 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $30 31d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 38d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $68 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $88 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $11 110d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 115d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 115d
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 117d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $27 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 133d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $23 140d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 155d
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 157d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 17? BUY No 100¢ $28 159d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $3,496 160d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $3,500 160d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $3,534 160d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $3,538 160d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,548 160d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,552 160d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,063 168d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $3,066 169d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,063 169d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,066 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.00 · official $69.00 (match) · 68 history records