Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6F 0x6faf…de48 sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$892 (-5%) realized −$281 · open −$611
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%51W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$300
14 days−$1,259
30 days−$610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$1,173
other 23% +$809
world 11% −$818
crypto 4% −$176
politics 0% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.2% -13.3% 38% 38% -3.1%
≤30d 92 -13.6% -21.9% 34% 33% -13.4%
≤90d 119 -11.5% -19.9% 35% 34% -13.2%
all 152 -4.0% -13.1% 34% 32% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 32% -13.8%
10% -21.4% 32% -22.1%
15% -29.0% 32% -29.6%
20% -36.0% 30% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$82 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$281
Unrealized−$611
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 101
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions5
Markets (closed)152 / 157
History coverage160d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 51¢ $150 $170 +$20 (+13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 20¢ 0¢ $438 $3 −$435 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $35 $2 −$32 (-93%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $103 +$122 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $103 +$151 +147%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 +$95 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$164 +160%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $167 +$124 +74%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $207 −$68 -33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $104 −$39 -38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $103 +$110 +108%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $358 +$254 +71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$47 -90%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $103 +$297 +287%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $104 −$54 -52%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $164 −$164 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $185 +$371 +200%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $311 −$94 -30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $185 +$156 +84%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $399 +$310 +78%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $189 −$189 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,163 −$776 -67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Belal Muhammad win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $206 −$206 -100%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $306 +$140 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Santiago Luna win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $52 −$49 -94%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $103 −$101 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $205 +$149 +73%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $103 +$164 +160%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $103 +$216 +210%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $205 +$145 +71%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $103 +$166 +162%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $359 +$355 +99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $155 −$155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $154 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $52 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $103 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $225 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $104 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $103 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $103 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $254 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $52 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $103 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $52 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $198 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $267 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $103 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $25 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $167 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $103 35h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 35h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $139 36h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $103 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $64 2d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $65 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $77 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $50 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $52 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $154 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.23 · official $262.56 (match) · 470 history records