Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6faf…8f89 other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%36W / 36L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$9
other 22% +$1
politics 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 23 +6.4% -3.8% 35% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 23 +6.4% -3.8% 35% 4% -8.9%
all 72 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 4% -8.9%
10% -16.4% 3% -17.6%
15% -24.5% 1% -25.6%
20% -31.9% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.78 per $1 lost it wins $3.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses36 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage455d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $69 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $55 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $101 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +129%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $45 +$3 +7%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $44 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 17 $2 $0 +15%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 21 $3 $0 -17%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 17 $1 $0 -29%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will 'LEveL' win Crunchyroll's Best Anime Song Award for 2025? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $6 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $37 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $43 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $55 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $55 31h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 42h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 47h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $25 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $40 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $50 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $54 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records