Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6fae…9997 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$98 (+1%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%16W / 87L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$7
politics 36% −$7
sports 7% +$113
economics 3% $0
world 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 78 -2.4% -11.7% 6% 4% -9.8%
all 103 +7.6% -2.6% 16% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 13% -9.0%
10% -11.9% 12% -17.7%
15% -20.4% 6% -25.6%
20% -28.2% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×12.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses16 / 87
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage118d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $356 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $137 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $156 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $149 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $157 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $357 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $142 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $454 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $170 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $270 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $157 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $128 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $347 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $157 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $320 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $360 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $339 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $139 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $133 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $174 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $290 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $345 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $145 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $137 19d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $138 27d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $183 28d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $183 30d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 33d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $123 40d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 46d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $137 47d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $137 47d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $129 47d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $129 47d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $156 48d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $156 48d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 48d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 49d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 49d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 49d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 49d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $170 49d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $170 50d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $157 50d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $157 50d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $146 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.96 · official $72.96 (match) · 291 history records