Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6F 0x6fac…4e7d sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,939 (+50%) realized +$1,939 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days+$1,468
14 days+$1,870
30 days+$1,870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$823
other 37% +$1,143
crypto 14% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.9% +14.8% 38% 38% +30.2%
≤30d 9 +32.8% +20.1% 44% 44% +34.5%
≤90d 9 +32.8% +20.1% 44% 44% +34.5%
all 9 +32.8% +20.1% 44% 44% +34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.1% 44% +34.5%
10% +8.6% 44% +21.6%
15% -1.9% 44% +9.9%
20% -11.5% 44% -0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$804 vs −$269 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,939
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage8d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $532 −$96 -18%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $389 +$1,421 +365%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $153 +$236 +154%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $255 −$250 -98%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $404 −$400 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,158 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $507 +$402 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $436 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $389 4d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $153 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $505 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $255 5d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $275 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $507 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records