Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6fa7…fe5e other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% $0
sports 24% −$2
politics 19% +$4
world 4% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 27 +2.2% -7.5% 52% 30% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 30% -9.5%
10% -16.4% 26% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 15% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage692d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027? No 83¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 27 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $600 −$2 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Ilhan Omar Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 28 $140 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will it Snow in Pittsburgh this December? Jan 25 $2 $0 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Jan 25 $2 $0 +6%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31? Jan 25 $1 $0 +35%
Will Google One be #1 Grossing App in Play Store on December 19? Jan 25 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Lyft say "Competition" during earnings call? Nov 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Trump Mobile smartphone released before September? Sep 18 $3 $0 +3%
Will Palmeiras beat Chelsea in regulation time? Jul 21 $1 $0 +32%
The 'Bill' Epstein Parlay Jul 03 $1 $0 +12%
Will Nic win Season 7 of Love Island USA? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DOGE cut $1B from USAID before March? May 16 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Trump impose tariffs on China before March? Feb 07 $6 −$4 -70%
100+ Bird Flu cases by Friday? Jan 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 20 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Farrell win the San Francisco Mayoral Election? Nov 17 $20 +$9 +42%
Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Seas Oct 16 $21 −$3 -14%
Will a Democrat win Washington US Senate Election? Oct 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? Sep 25 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Jill Biden speak at the DNC? Sep 08 $1 $0 +37%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Aug 11 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $201 1h
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $200 2d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $199 2d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $310 53d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $298 53d
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $310 55d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $300 55d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $299 55d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $300 55d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 84d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $70 84d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $70 87d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $70 87d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $70 87d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 87d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $121 106d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 106d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $120 107d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $119 107d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $120 107d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 107d
Nothing Ever Happens: Ilhan Omar BUY Nothing 94¢ $1 133d
Nothing Ever Happens: Ilhan Omar SELL Nothing 91¢ $1 133d
Nothing Ever Happens: Ilhan Omar BUY Nothing 94¢ $1 133d
Will Kinetiq reach $1 before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1 146d
Will Google One be #1 Grossing App in Play Store on December 19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 189d
Will Google One be #1 Grossing App in Play Store on December 19? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 189d
Will Google One be #1 Grossing App in Play Store on December 19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 189d
Will it Snow in Pittsburgh this December? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $1.03 (match) · 95 history records