Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6fa1…6edb sports 1148 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$540 (+0%) realized +$527 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%632W / 492L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$1,528est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$10,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,129
7 days−$7,746
14 days−$8,690
30 days−$16,652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$11,426
other 46% +$10,083
world 1% +$958
crypto 0% +$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +14.7% +3.8% 48% 47% -27.1%
≤30d 345 -9.6% -18.2% 45% 43% -27.6%
≤90d 1124 +6.0% -4.1% 56% 55% -9.6%
all 1124 +6.0% -4.1% 56% 55% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 55% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 53% -18.2%
15% -21.6% 46% -26.1%
20% -29.3% 37% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$172 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$10,237
Realized+$527
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses632 / 492
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,528
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1124 / 1148
History coverage72d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 1124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 46¢ $3,526 $3,417 −$109 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 71¢ 70¢ $1,015 $1,008 −$7 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $721 $716 −$5 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $702 $716 +$14 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 58¢ $543 $548 +$5 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $431 $426 −$5 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $256 $305 +$49 (+19%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $193 $289 +$95 (+49%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $203 $289 +$86 (+42%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 92¢ $272 $288 +$16 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $279 $280 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $271 $264 −$8 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $231 $233 +$2 (+1%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $265 $223 −$42 (-16%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 70¢ $246 $220 −$27 (-11%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 69¢ $209 $217 +$8 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $128 $164 +$36 (+28%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $115 $117 +$2 (+1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $94 $117 +$23 (+25%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $184 $95 −$89 (-48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $103 $86 −$17 (-17%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 25¢ $90 $78 −$12 (-14%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $47 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $749 +$187 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $990 −$54 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,822 −$2,801 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $346 +$590 +170%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $287 −$281 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $429 −$429 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $384 −$384 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,706 −$1,685 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $665 −$665 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,177 −$2,177 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,446 −$2,446 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $958 −$945 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $449 +$487 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $762 +$174 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,141 +$409 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,669 +$3,011 +180%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,804 +$68 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $209 +$123 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,884 −$948 -50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 +$849 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $613 +$289 +47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $293 +$330 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $225 +$711 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $632 −$308 -49%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $475 −$475 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $524 −$524 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $475 −$475 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $674 −$674 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $683 −$683 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $753 +$183 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $275 +$102 +37%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $337 −$337 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $144 +$190 +133%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $683 +$253 +37%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $232 +$104 +45%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $730 +$206 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,572 +$300 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $940 −$4 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $439 +$96 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $400 +$536 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $159 +$777 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $473 +$653 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $384 +$552 +144%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $233 −$233 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $347 −$347 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $183 −$183 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $670 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $456 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $440 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $399 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $456 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $456 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $456 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $456 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $12 7h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $45 7h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $6 7h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $287 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $15 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $17 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $7 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $82 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $13 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $28 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $44 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $13 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $6 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $223 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $396 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $550 9h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $726 9h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $117 9h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $6 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,236.72 · official $10,233.63 (match) · 2943 history records