Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6fa0…17c7 weather 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$157 (+8%) realized +$181 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate48%38W / 41L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$178
14 days+$184
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$274
weather 20% −$74
other 9% −$35
sports 3% −$13
crypto 1% −$13
finance 1% −$8
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +2.6% -7.2% 30% 25% +9.8%
≤30d 34 +3.1% -6.7% 44% 38% +8.9%
≤90d 79 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 29% -1.5%
all 79 -7.5% -16.3% 48% 29% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 29% -1.5%
10% -24.3% 23% -10.9%
15% -31.6% 19% -19.5%
20% -38.3% 18% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses38 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)79 / 86
History coverage63d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 80¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-72%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $70 −$4 -6%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $115 −$3 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $113 −$7 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $75 −$38 -51%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $150 +$11 +7%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -79%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $131 +$85 +65%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $35 +$18 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $35 +$161 +461%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$10 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +75%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $34 −$18 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 −$6 -41%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $8 +$11 +131%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $8 +$1 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $6 +$2 +29%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 26 $100 +$12 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $11 +$14 +131%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $40 +$10 +25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $20 +$13 +65%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 20 $6 +$12 +199%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $90 −$68 -75%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $31 +$72 +232%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $96 −$15 -16%
Jiujiang: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Rio Noguchi Apr 29 $53 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 24 Apr 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 24? Apr 24 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 24? Apr 24 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 24? Apr 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 24? Apr 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 24? Apr 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 24? Apr 24 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 24? Apr 24 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 24? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 24? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 3h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 82¢ $66 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 11h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 87¢ $70 13h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $112 13h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $98 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $90 25h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 25h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $21 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $30 27h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 82¢ $43 39h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $90 45h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 14¢ $5 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 18¢ $5 46h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 53¢ $20 47h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 1¢ $0 47h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 3¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 69¢ $118 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 72¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.32 · official $80.32 (match) · 234 history records