Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f9e…17c3 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,215 (+26%) realized +$3,212 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$3,204
politics 33% −$1
economics 16% $0
world 10% +$24
tech 2% +$27
other 2% −$45
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +16.8% +5.7% 100% 100% +5.7%
≤90d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 83% 22% -5.9%
all 38 +10.5% +0.0% 71% 37% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 37% +14.0%
10% -9.6% 24% +3.1%
15% -18.3% 18% -6.9%
20% -26.3% 13% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$254 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$3,212
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage252d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $109 $113 +$5 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $119 +$20 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $208 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $120 +$2 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $27 −$2 -7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 20 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $182 +$10 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 15 $172 +$2 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $38 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $54 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $366 +$1 +0%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $39 +$21 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 05 $18 +$2 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 05 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 02 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 02 $60 +$2 +4%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Wild Mar 20 $2,508 +$5,092 +203%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? Mar 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-30? Mar 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers Mar 19 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 09 $77 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +0%
Suns vs. 76ers Jan 30 $24 +$26 +108%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $4 +$1 +27%
Magic vs. Warriors Dec 30 $13 +$7 +49%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $17 +$3 +15%
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-11-17? Nov 22 $20 +$20 +100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. UCLA Nov 16 $15 +$15 +96%
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31 Nov 08 $9 +$1 +16%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Nov 08 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 28 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $4,029 −$4 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $1,801 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $67 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $2 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $10 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $60 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $0 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 21d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 82¢ $43 23d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 82¢ $28 23d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 82¢ $1 23d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 82¢ $10 23d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 82¢ $37 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $142 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $122 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $120 30d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $11 30d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $12 31d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 31d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $64 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $59 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $66 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $44 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.00 · official $160.94 (match) · 193 history records