Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f9c…305d sports 185 markets active 9h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$851 (-7%) realized −$851 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%71W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$5
14 days+$37
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$517
crypto 22% −$619
sports 21% −$850
world 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.8% -17.5% 41% 41% -7.4%
≤30d 71 +7.7% -2.6% 41% 41% -9.0%
≤90d 118 -9.0% -17.7% 38% 37% -6.4%
all 182 -17.2% -25.1% 39% 36% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 36% -16.9%
10% -32.3% 34% -24.8%
15% -38.8% 30% -32.1%
20% -44.8% 27% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$44 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$851
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses71 / 111
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 185
History coverage124d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (99 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$7 +180%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 +$7 +105%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $15 +$30 +195%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$20 +131%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $15 +$15 +97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $17 −$1 -6%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $21 −$2 -8%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $43 −$42 -98%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $22 +$21 +93%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $49 −$48 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $71 −$70 -99%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $61 +$44 +73%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $22 +$22 +99%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $69 −$68 -99%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $71 +$78 +109%
Will Slovakia vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 05 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $7 +$18 +253%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $11 +$19 +171%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $13 +$14 +107%
Will Georgia vs. Bahrain end in a draw? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -97%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $11 +$12 +105%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $32 +$32 +97%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $10 +$14 +134%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $12 +$17 +140%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $10 +$18 +180%
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $10 +$22 +216%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$13 +124%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $5 +$37 +712%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY 28¢ $15 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $11 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $4 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $4 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $15 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq v BUY $0 30h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $7 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY 13¢ $16 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 33¢ $15 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $35 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 7d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 53¢ $16 7d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 7d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $19 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $15.00 · 309 history records