trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 50¢ | 46¢ | $23 | $21 | −$2 (-7%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? | No | 16¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-95%) |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? | No | 69¢ | 0¢ | $54 | $0 | −$54 (-100%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? | Yes | 79¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 12 | $175 | −$43 | -25% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $17 | +$7 | +41% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? | Jun 11 | $6 | +$2 | +26% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Jun 11 | $30 | −$21 | -70% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? | Jun 10 | $3 | +$1 | +30% |
| Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? | Jun 07 | $54 | −$54 | -99% |
| Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? | Jun 06 | $47 | +$8 | +16% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? | Jun 05 | $50 | −$3 | -7% |
| Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? | Jun 05 | $5 | −$4 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? | Jun 05 | $41 | +$13 | +32% |
| Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? | Jun 04 | $11 | +$30 | +262% |
| Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? | Jun 04 | $25 | −$14 | -55% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? | Jun 03 | $10 | −$10 | -93% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? | Jun 03 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? | Jun 02 | $2 | −$1 | -98% |
| Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? | Jun 02 | $10 | −$4 | -37% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? | Jun 01 | $17 | +$24 | +140% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? | Jun 01 | $20 | +$5 | +24% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? | Jun 01 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? | May 31 | $20 | +$2 | +12% |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? | May 31 | $7 | −$7 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -20.8% | -28.4% | 44% | 44% | -34.9% |
| ≤30d | 21 | -14.4% | -22.6% | 43% | 43% | -25.3% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -14.4% | -22.6% | 43% | 43% | -25.3% |
| all | 21 | -14.4% | -22.6% | 43% | 43% | -25.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.6% | 43% | -25.3% |
| 10% | -30.0% | 33% | -32.5% |
| 15% | -36.7% | 14% | -39.0% |
| 20% | -42.9% | 10% | -45.0% |