Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f96…f72d crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$247 (+9%) realized +$256 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%30W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$238
7 days−$95
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.6% -6.3% 56% 52% -16.2%
≤30d 56 -3.0% -12.3% 54% 52% -12.0%
≤90d 56 -3.0% -12.3% 54% 52% -12.0%
all 56 -3.0% -12.3% 54% 52% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 52% -12.0%
10% -20.7% 41% -20.4%
15% -28.3% 34% -28.1%
20% -35.4% 29% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$37 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$256
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses30 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage13d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 37¢ 52¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$78 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $128 −$118 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $204 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$33 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$32 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$38 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$21 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$67 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$23 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 05 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$14 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 05 $79 +$26 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 05 $77 +$48 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $126 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $52 +$101 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $52 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $27 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 05 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 05 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 05 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.16 · official $141.16 (match) · 154 history records