Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6F 0x6f92…ecc7 crypto 1606 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$278 (-1%) realized −$250 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%1551W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day140.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$164
14 days−$250
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$78
other 15% −$187
sports 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 563 -0.6% -10.1% 96% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 1596 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 1596 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.6%
all 1596 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 0% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1551 / 45
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1596 / 1606
History coverage14d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day140.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $190 $190 +$0 (+0%)
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 34¢ $28 $18 −$10 (-35%)
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 62¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 54¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 99¢ 82¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 0m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.16 · official $381.87 (match) · 3500 history records