Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6f92…4198 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,901 (-74%) realized −$9,900 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate74%68W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$9,982
30 days−$9,907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$9,828
sports 12% +$95
other 5% −$144
crypto 1% −$21
tech 1% +$2
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -31.1% -37.7% 53% 47% -15.5%
≤30d 92 -7.5% -16.3% 74% 49% -77.4%
≤90d 92 -7.5% -16.3% 74% 49% -77.4%
all 92 -7.5% -16.3% 74% 49% -77.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 49% -77.4%
10% -24.3% 27% -79.6%
15% -31.6% 15% -81.6%
20% -38.3% 5% -83.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$431 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$9,900
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses68 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage20d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 96¢ 95¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$45 -45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$12 -60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 +$11 +11%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open (Doubles): Pavlasek/Rikl vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $600 +$132 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $100 +$11 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +20%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +29%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $100 +$8 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +14%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $10 +$4 +44%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $206 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $15 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $200 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $99 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $1 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 87¢ $13 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $55 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $138 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 90¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.15 · official $99.15 (match) · 203 history records