Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f8e…f826 crypto 110 markets active 7d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+6%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%49W / 61L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 26% -12.0%
≤30d 110 +3.7% -6.2% 45% 28% -8.7%
≤90d 110 +3.7% -6.2% 45% 28% -8.7%
all 110 +3.7% -6.2% 45% 28% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 28% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 19% -17.4%
15% -23.4% 10% -25.4%
20% -30.9% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses49 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage16d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$9 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $23 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 526 history records