Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f8e…4c47 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-1%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%52W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$14
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$81
other 27% +$1
politics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 26 -2.6% -11.9% 23% 4% -12.0%
≤90d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 21% 4% -11.3%
all 119 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 4% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -11.0%
10% -19.2% 2% -19.5%
15% -27.0% 1% -27.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses52 / 67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage450d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $145 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $92 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $190 −$15 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $95 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $95 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $146 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $95 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $93 +$2 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $290 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $103 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $102 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -36%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $93 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $66 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $102 −$7 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $4 +$1 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $165 −$54 -33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $166 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $166 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $152 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $1,143 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $121 −$4 -4%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25? Aug 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 05 $2 $0 -11%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Aug 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Jul 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 30 $1 $0 +21%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $7 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 24 $6 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $52 30m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $52 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $83 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $83 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $83 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $83 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $84 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $84 27h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $92 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $92 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $83 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $83 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $82 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $95 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $66 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $82 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $96 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $95 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $95 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $95 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 436 history records