Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f8c…a31a world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,008 (-7%) realized −$2,008 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$750per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$1,335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$2,034
finance 13% −$5
other 4% +$300
crypto 3% −$5
politics 3% −$8
sports 2% −$285
tech 1% −$4
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 50% -15.4%
≤30d 3 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 33% -35.2%
≤90d 28 -7.5% -16.3% 36% 14% -15.1%
all 36 -7.1% -15.9% 39% 17% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 17% -16.3%
10% -24.0% 11% -24.4%
15% -31.3% 8% -31.7%
20% -38.1% 6% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$999) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$195 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,008
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage583d
Avg bet$750
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $143 −$47 -33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$33 +47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $4,495 −$1,321 -29%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 29 $2,079 +$480 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 29 $970 −$530 -55%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Apr 29 $300 +$3 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 24 $300 −$14 -5%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 24 $200 −$4 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 20 $200 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Apr 20 $200 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Apr 19 $500 −$22 -4%
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? Apr 19 $300 −$6 -2%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? Apr 19 $185 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 19 $300 −$3 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 19 $616 −$289 -47%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Apr 18 $681 −$8 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $1,498 −$184 -12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 17 $200 −$69 -35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 17 $999 +$3 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $100 −$64 -64%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $577 −$79 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 15 $165 −$39 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 10 $2,345 +$96 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 10 $355 −$13 -4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $1,339 +$1,006 +75%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 26 $700 −$388 -56%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 24 $800 +$178 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 06 $1,280 −$74 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 05 $1,313 −$34 -3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $900 +$50 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $299 +$59 +20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $1,082 −$822 -76%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 23 $283 +$14 +5%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $570 −$285 -50%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $571 +$329 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $44 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 30¢ $44 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $71 45h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 45h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $53 45h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $99 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 40¢ $93 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,422 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 62¢ $785 45d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 62¢ $90 45d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,143 46d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,591 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $55 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $108 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $124 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 51d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL No 100¢ $2,176 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 35¢ $440 53d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $303 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 64¢ $563 58d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 58d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL No 93¢ $102 58d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $286 58d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $196 58d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 77¢ $163 62d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 77¢ $609 62d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $162 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records