Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6f8a…3598
other · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$37 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage546d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Oilers vs. Ducks Oilers 58¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $5 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Aug 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 07 $0 $0 -58%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? May 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $5 $0 -0%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $8 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Feb 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $371 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 15 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% −$37
other 16% $0
politics 6% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 24d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 50d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 55d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 77d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 78d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 92d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $5 92d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 114d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 114d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 141d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $6 141d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 178d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 178d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 203d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 203d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $6 231d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $6 231d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 96¢ $5 262d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $5 262d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $5 299d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $5 299d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 304d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 304d
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 304d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 325d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 325d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $6 331d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -11.5% -19.9% 0% 0% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 0% -14.7%
10% -27.6% 0% -22.8%
15% -34.6% 0% -30.3%
20% -41.0% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records