Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6f86…4fa9 sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$237 (-1%) realized −$775 · open +$538
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%71W / 56L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$6,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$909
7 days−$2,759
14 days−$2,404
30 days−$2,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$77
other 40% −$843
crypto 1% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -22.2% -29.6% 48% 48% -28.0%
≤30d 66 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 53% -20.1%
≤90d 127 -4.8% -13.8% 56% 52% -13.9%
all 127 -4.8% -13.8% 56% 52% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 52% -13.9%
10% -22.1% 46% -22.1%
15% -29.6% 32% -29.6%
20% -36.5% 21% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$123 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$6,917
Realized−$775
Unrealized+$538
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses71 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions15
Markets (closed)127 / 144
History coverage50d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card) Murtazali Magomedov 81¢ 100¢ $1,463 $1,809 +$347 (+24%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 96¢ $592 $766 +$174 (+29%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 87¢ 82¢ $700 $664 −$36 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Navajo Stirling 74¢ 76¢ $565 $577 +$12 (+2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $400 $444 +$44 (+11%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 67¢ 68¢ $402 $405 +$3 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $300 $321 +$21 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 67¢ 66¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $173 $176 +$3 (+2%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 85¢ 81¢ $169 $161 −$8 (-5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 14¢ 8¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $504 +$159 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $403 +$149 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $1,777 −$990 -56%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $1,599 +$251 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $202 +$134 +66%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $796 +$384 +48%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $112 −$110 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $1,003 −$17 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $707 −$399 -56%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $243 −$240 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $404 −$400 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,409 +$169 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,219 −$1,207 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $242 +$68 +28%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 −$37 -52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$88 -67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $255 +$62 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$30 -73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$96 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $111 +$43 +39%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$93 -70%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $121 +$31 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $131 +$36 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $61 +$46 +76%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $429 +$123 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $225 +$210 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $40 −$20 -50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $250 +$157 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $211 +$39 +18%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $162 +$49 +30%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $66 −$66 -99%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $229 +$59 +26%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $180 +$49 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $145 +$35 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 05 $243 −$240 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 81¢ $555 32m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Vinicius Oliveira 100¢ $553 34m
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 81¢ $860 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 37¢ $787 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 79¢ $269 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 78¢ $201 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 83¢ $302 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 82¢ $503 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 83¢ $503 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Bia Mesquita 100¢ $1,850 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 86¢ $409 2h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 100¢ $336 2h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 72¢ $101 3h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 59¢ $202 3h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 86¢ $803 3h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre SELL Shane Collins 100¢ $1,180 3h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 86¢ $387 4h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $202 4h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 45¢ $112 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $700 4h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $38 4h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 67¢ $555 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $286 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $308 4h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 76¢ $56 14h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 76¢ $201 14h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 67¢ $303 14h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 75¢ $504 14h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $203 14h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 73¢ $202 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,917.17 · official $6,917.17 (match) · 331 history records