Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6f83…8568 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$261 (+87%) realized +$265 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$16
crypto 21% +$295
world 8% −$16
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+52.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +44.8% +31.0% 24% 24% +66.3%
≤30d 27 +68.6% +52.6% 26% 26% +120.5%
≤90d 27 +68.6% +52.6% 26% 26% +120.5%
all 27 +68.6% +52.6% 26% 26% +120.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.6% 26% +120.5%
10% +38.0% 26% +99.4%
15% +24.6% 26% +80.1%
20% +12.4% 26% +62.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +142% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +142% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +150% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$5 · ×10.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$265
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)27 / 35
History coverage139d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $3 +$5 +150%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +300%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$10 -68%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -56%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +135%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -34%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$156 +1521%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $31 −$3 -9%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$26 +503%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $20 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $20 +$147 +733%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 16¢ $10 15m
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 15h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 19h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.02 · official $51.97 · 68 history records