Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6f82…bc1b other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,112 (+1%) realized +$1,112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%17W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,427per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$91
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$19
politics 29% −$63
sports 10% +$1,121
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -1.6% -10.9% 11% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 89 +0.1% -9.5% 8% 4% -9.1%
all 112 +4.0% -5.9% 15% 12% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 12% -8.9%
10% -14.9% 12% -17.6%
15% -23.2% 9% -25.6%
20% -30.7% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,625) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$4 · ×19.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized+$1,112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage106d
Avg bet$1,427
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $429 $428 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $951 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,454 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $939 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,537 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,281 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $995 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,866 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,599 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $2,698 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $76 +$77 +101%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $401 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $589 +$2 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $653 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,294 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $2,425 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,224 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $78 +$34 +44%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,056 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,839 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $2,769 −$3 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $4,408 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $3,950 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,087 −$4 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $949 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $951 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $921 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $923 5h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,075 8h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 10h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $824 29h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $825 33h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $938 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $939 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,094 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,096 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,080 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,081 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $429 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,321 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,323 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,125 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,279 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,281 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,010 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,011 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $994 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $995 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,320 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,321 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,550 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,552 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,374 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.44 · official $428.44 (match) · 345 history records