Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f82…04a1 weather 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
Total PnL −$98 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate81%89W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$171
sports 8% +$22
crypto 4% +$10
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.6% -11.0% 78% 28% -8.0%
≤30d 79 -4.6% -13.6% 78% 27% -10.5%
≤90d 110 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 25% -9.7%
all 110 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 25% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 25% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses89 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage67d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Under 94¢ 99¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Yes 92¢ 84¢ $38 $34 −$4 (-9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $36 +$3 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $128 −$2 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$10 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $85 +$13 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $79 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 −$23 -22%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $151 −$22 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $140 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $130 +$4 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $120 −$16 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $66 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $59 +$2 +3%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $53 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $63 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $50 −$17 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $65 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $62 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $53 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $78 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 31? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $130 −$64 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 31? May 31 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30? May 30 $80 +$9 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 30 $29 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $120 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 30? May 30 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 29? May 29 $100 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $120 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 29? May 29 $120 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 28 $112 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 28 $105 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 28 $78 +$9 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 27 $91 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $87 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 27? May 27 $82 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 26 $37 +$6 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $38 20m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $39 21m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $36 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 94¢ $126 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $128 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $112 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $70 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $56 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $61 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 91¢ $61 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $52 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 74¢ $51 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $94 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $88 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $98 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $85 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $85 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $69 32h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $9 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 91¢ $125 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $116 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $101 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 73¢ $78 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $100 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 71¢ $129 47h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.14 · official $140.14 (match) · 250 history records