Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f81…2bb7 sports 1081 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,972 (+2%) realized +$1,700 · open +$272
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%602W / 453L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$815est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$5,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,365
7 days−$2,710
14 days−$2,679
30 days−$1,663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$5,404
other 48% +$6,491
world 1% +$309
crypto 0% +$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +28.6% +16.4% 55% 53% -19.2%
≤30d 287 +12.1% +1.4% 57% 55% -12.6%
≤90d 1055 +7.3% -3.0% 57% 56% -8.4%
all 1055 +7.3% -3.0% 57% 56% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 56% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 54% -17.1%
15% -20.7% 48% -25.1%
20% -28.5% 38% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$101 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$5,032
Realized+$1,700
Unrealized+$272
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses602 / 453
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$815
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1055 / 1081
History coverage70d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 1055 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $462 $465 +$3 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $450 $459 +$9 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $348 $441 +$93 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $426 $429 +$3 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 92¢ $256 $370 +$114 (+45%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $294 $303 +$9 (+3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $291 $294 +$2 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $282 $285 +$3 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $164 $195 +$31 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $174 $187 +$13 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $179 $184 +$6 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $124 $183 +$59 (+48%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $174 $169 −$5 (-3%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $170 $143 −$27 (-16%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $158 $139 −$19 (-12%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 54¢ $74 $107 +$33 (+45%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $82 $105 +$23 (+28%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 71¢ 72¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $92 $81 −$11 (-12%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $60 $75 +$15 (+25%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 41¢ $74 $67 −$7 (-9%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $64 $61 −$3 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $118 $61 −$57 (-48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $66 $55 −$11 (-17%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $58 $53 −$5 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 298 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $444 +$156 +35%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,459 +$573 +39%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $426 +$174 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $95 +$112 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $262 −$258 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $501 −$498 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $480 +$120 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $634 −$34 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,752 −$1,739 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $222 +$378 +170%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $184 −$180 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $384 −$384 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,093 −$1,080 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $614 −$606 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $288 +$312 +108%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $444 +$156 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $860 +$1,540 +179%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,156 +$44 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,380 −$1,380 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $378 +$222 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $903 −$303 -34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 +$545 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $233 +$115 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $113 +$127 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $144 +$456 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $445 −$142 -32%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,396 −$1,386 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $483 +$117 +24%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $438 −$438 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 +$294 +96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $438 +$162 +37%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $280 −$276 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $268 +$332 +124%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $447 +$165 +37%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $468 +$132 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $504 +$96 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $602 −$2 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $192 +$42 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $256 +$344 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 +$498 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $252 +$348 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $246 +$354 +144%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $432 −$432 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $216 −$216 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $414 +$186 +45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $286 +$314 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $474 +$126 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $430 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $298 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $286 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $262 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $501 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $13 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $83 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $292 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $292 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 47¢ $833 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $291 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $292 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $80 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $24 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $14 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $11 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $12 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $45 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $240 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $101 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $17 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $5 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $44 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $3 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $9 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $104 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $4 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $51 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $4 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $9 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,031.92 · official $5,026.74 (match) · 2426 history records