Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f80…334b other 23 markets active 12h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$890 (+10%) realized +$906 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$914
7 days+$1,224
14 days+$848
30 days+$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$1,888
sports 6% −$456
world 5% −$450
crypto 2% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.6% -5.4% 65% 65% +7.1%
≤30d 19 +0.5% -9.1% 63% 63% +0.6%
≤90d 19 +0.5% -9.1% 63% 63% +0.6%
all 19 +0.5% -9.1% 63% 63% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 63% +0.6%
10% -17.8% 63% -9.0%
15% -25.7% 53% -17.8%
20% -33.0% 32% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$276 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,484
Realized+$906
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $400 $421 +$21 (+5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $400 $367 −$33 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$126 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$211 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,111 +$577 +52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $506 +$295 +58%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $460 −$450 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $303 +$120 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $355 +$260 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $504 +$206 +41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $355 −$350 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $646 +$272 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $459 −$450 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $254 +$237 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $405 +$240 +59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $353 +$114 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $403 +$123 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 11h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 40h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $355 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $918 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $141 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $355 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $403 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $96 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $305 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $405 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $255 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $644 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $405 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,483.79 · official $1,483.79 (match) · 45 history records