Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f7d…0db8 weather 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate76%216W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day48.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$39
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -0.4% -9.9% 82% 19% -12.0%
≤30d 283 -0.3% -9.8% 76% 13% -10.6%
≤90d 283 -0.3% -9.8% 76% 13% -10.6%
all 283 -0.3% -9.8% 76% 13% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 13% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -19.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses216 / 67
Open positions19
Markets (closed)283 / 302
History coverage16d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day48.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? No 78¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? No 87¢ 91¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? No 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 19? No 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? No 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? No 90¢ 89¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 19? No 93¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? No 81¢ 77¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? No 95¢ 85¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 30m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.26 · official $95.33 (match) · 821 history records