Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f7c…a489 sports 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$173 (-4%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%109W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$21
14 days−$1
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$43
other 6% −$140
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +19.4% +8.1% 43% 43% -1.9%
≤30d 33 +2.4% -7.4% 39% 39% -4.9%
≤90d 100 -8.5% -17.2% 41% 41% -28.1%
all 267 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 39% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 39% -13.4%
10% -22.8% 39% -21.7%
15% -30.2% 38% -29.3%
20% -37.1% 36% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses109 / 158
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)267 / 269
History coverage137d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$15 +167%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$11 -53%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$21 +256%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 +$12 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 −$7 -45%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$20 +388%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$9 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$25 +242%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +84%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$12 +102%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$22 +211%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $36 +$28 +80%
Quentin Halys vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $15 +$20 +134%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5 May 26 $23 −$22 -98%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 3.5 May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $7 +$8 +117%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $18 −$18 -98%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $13 −$8 -64%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 09 $13 +$10 +73%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 09 $7 +$6 +81%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 09 $4 +$3 +81%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $11 −$11 -99%
Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5 May 09 $10 +$5 +46%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 4.5 May 08 $10 +$9 +89%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 08 $19 +$19 +101%
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5 May 08 $11 +$2 +15%
Petrojet SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 4.5 May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Petrojet SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 2.5 May 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 11h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $9 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $19 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $10 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 21h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $19 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $8 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $15 23h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 35h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 35h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 35h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 35h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 37h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $15 45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $35 45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $10 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.88 · official $22.88 (match) · 437 history records