Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6F 0x6f7c…4c7c other 897 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$350 (+8%) realized +$254 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate44%394W / 494L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$70
14 days+$137
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$374
politics 6% −$51
weather 6% +$12
sports 4% +$21
tech 1% −$5
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.3% -11.6% 61% 30% -3.8%
≤30d 76 -7.0% -15.9% 47% 28% -0.4%
≤90d 267 +6.3% -3.8% 64% 33% -1.2%
all 888 +15.4% +4.4% 44% 29% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.4% 29% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -5.6% 21% -13.2%
15% -14.7% 16% -21.6%
20% -23.1% 13% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized+$254
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses394 / 494
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)888 / 897
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 888 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 75¢ 100¢ $135 $180 +$45 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $110 $121 +$11 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 60¢ 94¢ $69 $109 +$40 (+58%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 83¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 84¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 83¢ 74¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $488 +$32 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $71 +$16 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $107 +$47 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $15 +$16 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $257 −$47 -18%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 23 $3 $0 -6%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +30%
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 10? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -69%
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 50? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 16 $4 $0 -10%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 -7%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $117 +$59 +51%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Will GBP/USD hit 1.20 (Low) in 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$20 -81%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 3m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 50m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 50m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 52m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 16h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 18h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 46h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $87 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.97 · official $468.98 (match) · 3500 history records