Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f79…0307 sports 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,068 (+6%) realized +$2,069 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%92W / 103L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$45
30 days+$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$445
world 21% +$1,199
other 17% +$557
crypto 7% −$68
politics 7% −$175
finance 3% −$5
tech 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 50% -3.5%
≤30d 57 -6.1% -15.1% 46% 46% -7.6%
≤90d 131 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 42% -3.1%
all 195 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 42% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 42% -4.2%
10% -21.7% 37% -13.4%
15% -29.3% 31% -21.7%
20% -36.2% 23% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$51 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$2,069
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses92 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage112d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $111 $110 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $118 −$6 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $97 +$21 +21%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF Jun 19 $289 −$8 -3%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $12 −$11 -97%
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$30 -60%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $27 +$13 +48%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 18 $338 −$336 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $601 −$371 -62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $190 −$189 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $19 +$10 +52%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $67 +$27 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $214 +$77 +36%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $603 +$609 +101%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 17 $609 −$6 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $458 −$452 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $486 −$29 -6%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $504 −$16 -3%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 17 $35 +$12 +35%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $23 −$22 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 +$16 +38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $75 +$25 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $7 +$2 +24%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $34 −$34 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $76 +$24 +32%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $28 +$28 +101%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $88 +$30 +34%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$37 +712%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $83 +$81 +97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 +$44 +146%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 +$7 +65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $249 −$248 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $24 −$23 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $69 +$16 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 +$16 +52%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $112 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $112 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $118 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $97 15h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 8d
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF SELL Yes 50¢ $282 8d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 8d
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane SELL Salah 50¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 8d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 8d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 8d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 8d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $21 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $40 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 82¢ $288 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 36¢ $231 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $601 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $190 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 70¢ $50 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $27 8d
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 47¢ $26 8d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 65¢ $19 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $67 9d
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane BUY Salah 50¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.28 · official $110.28 (match) · 558 history records