Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6F 0x6f76…1d92 other 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,704 (-4%) realized −$1,694 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate43%121W / 163L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,131
7 days−$969
14 days−$946
30 days−$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$423
politics 31% −$834
other 29% −$1,962
sports 5% +$410
tech 2% −$291
crypto 1% −$51
economics 0% +$72
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +6.7% -3.5% 25% 20% -18.7%
≤30d 46 +6.2% -3.9% 26% 20% -17.6%
≤90d 69 +5.3% -4.7% 35% 23% -11.3%
all 284 -6.0% -14.9% 43% 26% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 26% -14.4%
10% -23.1% 14% -22.6%
15% -30.5% 9% -30.1%
20% -37.3% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$44 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized−$1,694
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses121 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions22
Markets (closed)284 / 306
History coverage161d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$33 -54%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $65 −$22 -34%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $267 −$202 -76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $619 −$59 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $293 +$15 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$8 -15%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 −$7 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$338 -67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$5 -17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 −$20 -28%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 −$31 -76%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 −$50 -61%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$39 -75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $501 −$28 -6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 +$287 +216%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $406 −$319 -79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $939 −$199 -21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$292 +580%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$166 +324%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$284 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$153 +374%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$49 -48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $319 −$315 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$10 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $125 −$6 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $529 +$301 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $405 −$37 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $469 −$447 -95%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $444 −$51 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $193 +$176 +91%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $158 −$114 -72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $179 +$284 +158%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $836 −$53 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,024 +$27 +3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 16 $303 +$7 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $300 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 06 $973 +$175 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 52m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 53m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 53m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 54m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 54m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 55m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 55m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 56m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 56m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 58m
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 58m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 59m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $43 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $65 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $65 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $267 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 36¢ $267 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.56 · official $550.58 (match) · 970 history records