Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f74…ccc5 weather 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-17%) realized −$28 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$31
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$6
sports 10% −$20
politics 6% −$11
world 2% $0
weather 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-81.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -95.6% -96.0% 0% 0% -96.0%
≤30d 4 -98.9% -99.0% 0% 0% -98.7%
≤90d 5 -79.3% -81.2% 0% 0% -87.5%
all 5 -79.3% -81.2% 0% 0% -87.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.2% 0% -87.5%
10% -83.0% 0% -88.7%
15% -84.7% 0% -89.8%
20% -86.2% 0% -90.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage38d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 38¢ $162 $156 −$6 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 14 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $28 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $28 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $28 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $28 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $28 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $28 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 71¢ $20 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.27 · official $156.27 (match) · 16 history records