Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6f73…82a1 sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$321 (+33%) realized +$376 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$258
14 days+$313
30 days+$313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$186
other 47% +$85
crypto 1% −$9
politics 1% −$3
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +33.2% +20.5% 54% 50% +30.9%
≤30d 47 +21.4% +9.8% 51% 47% +24.6%
≤90d 47 +21.4% +9.8% 51% 47% +24.6%
all 48 +20.0% +8.6% 50% 46% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 46% +24.2%
10% -1.8% 46% +12.3%
15% -11.3% 44% +1.4%
20% -20.0% 31% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$8 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$376
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage147d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 52¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 44¢ 24¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-47%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Croatia 23¢ $28 $9 −$19 (-67%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 +$14 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $32 +$46 +146%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 +$40 +325%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +44%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $61 +$85 +140%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$10 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$18 +172%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$3 -25%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$4 -40%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$17 +324%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$7 -60%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$43 +419%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$5 -40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +108%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +145%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $5 −$2 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 23¢ $29 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Spread: France (-5.5) SELL France $0 23h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $110 23h
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France 10¢ $9 28h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina $0 28h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $6 38h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $32 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 38h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand $10 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 2d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $20 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $61 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $110 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 22¢ $8 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 28¢ $10 4d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia $1 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 40¢ $22 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $20 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $3 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $10 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.45 · official $85.45 (match) · 97 history records