Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6F 0x6f6e…2eca sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$832 (+17%) realized +$830 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$792
other 13% −$582
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.4% -2.0% 52% 52% -5.3%
≤30d 21 +8.4% -2.0% 52% 52% -5.3%
≤90d 21 +8.4% -2.0% 52% 52% -5.3%
all 21 +8.4% -2.0% 52% 52% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 52% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 52% -14.4%
15% -19.9% 52% -22.7%
20% -27.8% 52% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$216 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$830
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $285 −$280 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $305 +$390 +128%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +72%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $568 −$560 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 +$329 +130%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $355 −$350 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$14 +91%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $276 +$347 +126%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $334 +$233 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $325 −$320 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $71 +$49 +68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$136 +89%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $272 +$433 +159%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 +$16 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $406 +$409 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 −$105 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $153 29m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $254 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $695 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $35 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 14¢ $10 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 14¢ $51 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 12¢ $10 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 12¢ $185 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $584 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $203 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $152 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $30 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $622 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $153 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.70 · official $151.70 (match) · 56 history records