Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f6b…a598 world 12 markets active 3d ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$153 (+1%) realized +$153 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,083per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$131
tech 21% +$22
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 6 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
all 12 +0.8% -8.8% 83% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$0 · ×306.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3069.05 per $1 lost it wins $3069.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage116d
Avg bet$1,083
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $3,783 +$29 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $3,215 +$11 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $512 +$5 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $2,287 +$86 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 23 $1,459 +$10 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Mar 23 $420 +$5 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Mar 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Mar 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $701 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 23 $196 +$1 +0%
Will France win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympic Feb 21 $96 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $556 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $556 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $556 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $548 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $548 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $547 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $545 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $544 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $544 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $543 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $544 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $543 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $542 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $537 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $536 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $537 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $535 32d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $532 35d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $353 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $126 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $51 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $531 39d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $528 40d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $534 45d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $528 60d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $528 62d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $517 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $512 77d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 96¢ $512 78d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $480 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records