Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f69…4185 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$37 (+9%) realized +$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$138
crypto 15% −$11
sports 14% +$103
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +92.7% +74.3% 21% 21% -4.0%
≤30d 14 +92.7% +74.3% 21% 21% -4.0%
≤90d 14 +92.7% +74.3% 21% 21% -4.0%
all 50 -8.1% -16.8% 22% 18% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 18% -20.0%
10% -24.8% 18% -27.6%
15% -32.0% 12% -34.6%
20% -38.7% 12% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage215d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -42%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -88%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -67%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +246%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$73 +1768%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $1 $0 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 19? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in November 2025? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Rockets Nov 17 $12 +$3 +23%
Commanders vs. Dolphins Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 16? Nov 16 $45 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 16? Nov 16 $5 −$3 -52%
Raptors vs. Pacers Nov 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Lakers vs. Bucks Nov 16 $5 +$5 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 16? Nov 16 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 16? Nov 16 $4 −$2 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 15? Nov 15 $2 +$2 +117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 15? Nov 15 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 15 $5 +$7 +144%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $25 −$9 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 13 $19 −$12 -63%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 74¢ $58 43m
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 44m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 18h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 30h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 SELL Yes 9¢ $1 193d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 SELL No 94¢ $3 196d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY No 96¢ $3 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.61 · official $10.61 (match) · 129 history records