Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f67…102c weather 748 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (863 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$88,153 (-312%) realized −$79,981 · open −$8,172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%160W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day862.7pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$12,395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$7,602
weather 20% −$646
politics 10% −$570
sports 8% +$181
world 6% −$49
tech 4% −$206
culture 1% −$23
economics 1% −$37
finance 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (863 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 561 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 4% -13.1%
≤30d 561 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 4% -13.1%
≤90d 561 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 4% -13.1%
all 561 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 4% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover862.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 4% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 2% -21.4%
15% -25.9% 2% -29.0%
20% -33.2% 1% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$12,395
Realized−$79,981
Unrealized−$8,172
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses160 / 401
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions500
Markets (closed)561 / 748
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day862.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? Yes 20¢ 45¢ $91 $204 +$113 (+124%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $130 $128 −$2 (-1%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $128 $124 −$4 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-07 House seat? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $130 $116 −$14 (-11%)
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? No 12¢ 10¢ $130 $114 −$16 (-12%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 45¢ 39¢ $130 $113 −$16 (-13%)
Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $130 $101 −$29 (-22%)
Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau? No 40¢ 40¢ $99 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $102 $98 −$4 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? No 58¢ 54¢ $105 $98 −$7 (-7%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? No 10¢ 10¢ $99 $94 −$5 (-5%)
Will Bill Hagerty be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? No 98¢ 100¢ $92 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat? No 69¢ 64¢ $97 $90 −$7 (-7%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $130 $89 −$41 (-31%)
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $107 $88 −$19 (-17%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 85¢ $92 $86 −$6 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat? No 45¢ 37¢ $104 $86 −$18 (-18%)
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $130 $85 −$45 (-34%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No 45¢ 37¢ $103 $85 −$18 (-18%)
Will the Colorado Rockies win more than 65.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? O 65.5 43¢ 37¢ $98 $85 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 28 $184 −$2 -1%
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Jun 28 $112 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $2 $0 +4%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 28 $130 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? Jun 28 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29? Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? Jun 28 $88 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 28? Jun 28 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29? Jun 28 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $11 $0 -2%
Will Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year? Jun 28 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 29? Jun 28 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 29? Jun 28 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 29? Jun 28 $4 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 29? Jun 28 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 28 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 29? Jun 28 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 29? Jun 28 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc Jun 28 $23 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? Jun 28 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $241 $0 +0%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 28 $46 −$3 -6%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $39 $0 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $101 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? Jun 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? Jun 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? Jun 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 29? Jun 28 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 29? Jun 28 $98 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? Jun 28 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 29? Jun 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 28 $135 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 29? Jun 28 $1 $0 -8%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 28 $174 −$15 -8%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 28 $2 $0 -9%
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 Jun 28 $100 −$33 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29? Jun 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 29? Jun 28 $14 −$2 -17%
Decibel FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 28 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 28 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $44 −$7 -17%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 29? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $104 +$2 +2%
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m? Jun 28 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 47¢ $101 5m
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $109 5m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 14m
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $22 15m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 16m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 28? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 28? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 20m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 29? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 21m
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $112 22m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 23m
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 23m
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary BUY Yes 18¢ $27 23m
Will GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 23m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 24m
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL No 19¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 56¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 28? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 57¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,394.65 · official $12,415.99 (match) · 3500 history records