Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f67…8d70 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$1,111 · open +$1,061
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$11,969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$1,061
sports 5% −$14
crypto 3% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-51.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 53 -46.7% -51.8% 28% 26% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.8% 26% -22.0%
10% -56.4% 26% -29.5%
15% -60.6% 25% -36.3%
20% -64.5% 17% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$11,969
Realized−$1,111
Unrealized+$1,061
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)53 / 60
History coverage378d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6,620 $7,704 +$1,084 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1,176 $1,216 +$40 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $1,152 $1,161 +$9 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $828 $831 +$3 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $488 $422 −$66 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $324 $321 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $320 $314 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 10 $60 −$59 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 10 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 10 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 09 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 09 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 09 $13 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 09 $40 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 09 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 09 $4 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 09 $4 +$6 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 09 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 09 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 08 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 08 $2 +$3 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 08 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 08 $13 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9PM ET Mar 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 07 $2 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 07 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 06 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 06 $4 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 13m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 15m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 16m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 18m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 18m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $85 29m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 33m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 34m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 43m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 44m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $119 45m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 46m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 55m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4,500 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,080 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $828 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $876 24h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $495 26h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $271 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,152 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $30 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $329 28h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,969.25 · official $11,969.25 (match) · 201 history records