Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f66…ede0 crypto 943 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,472 (-4%) realized −$1,466 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%412W / 528L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$1,299
other 10% −$609
world 7% −$150
politics 5% −$250
weather 1% +$93
tech 1% −$24
sports 0% +$9
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -9.0% -17.6% 44% 33% -18.2%
≤30d 120 -15.5% -23.5% 38% 32% -31.2%
≤90d 420 -14.5% -22.7% 40% 36% -19.2%
all 940 -4.7% -13.8% 44% 39% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 39% -15.1%
10% -22.0% 36% -23.2%
15% -29.6% 32% -30.6%
20% -36.5% 28% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$1,466
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses412 / 528
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)940 / 943
History coverage237d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 940 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 48¢ 36¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $69 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$22 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $49 −$30 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $59 +$64 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$31 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $84 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$31 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$29 +138%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$53 +333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $29 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $37 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $54 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $31 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $18 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.01 · official $19.53 (match) · 3356 history records