Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6f64…c0d9 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$202 (+64%) realized +$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$158
other 16% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.3% +26.1% 67% 67% +54.6%
≤30d 3 +39.3% +26.1% 67% 67% +54.6%
≤90d 3 +39.3% +26.1% 67% 67% +54.6%
all 3 +39.3% +26.1% 67% 67% +54.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.1% 67% +54.6%
10% +14.0% 67% +39.8%
15% +3.0% 67% +26.3%
20% -7.1% 67% +13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$39 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.04 per $1 lost it wins $5.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $40 −$39 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $108 +$108 +99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 +$90 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 52¢ $40 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 35¢ $41 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $33 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 46¢ $33 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $35 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $76 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.15 · official $90.15 (match) · 11 history records