Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f61…0f2d politics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 20% $0
economics 12% −$10
sports 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 6% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage184d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 30 $115 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $115 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 18 $116 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $117 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 27 $245 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $245 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $245 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $245 $0 +0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $245 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 07 $254 −$9 -4%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $254 $0 +0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 31 $247 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 30 $243 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $116 56m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $115 13h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $115 4d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $99 5d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $16 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 19d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 20d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $115 32d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $116 33d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $116 37d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $116 38d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $116 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $116 43d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $116 49d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $116 50d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 52d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 52d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $117 57d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $117 58d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $118 72d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $118 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $245 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $245 94d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $245 99d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $245 100d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $245 102d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $245 103d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $245 106d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $245 106d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $245 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records