Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f5c…2096 world 51 markets active 4h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$5
politics 17% $0
sports 16% $0
crypto 13% $0
other 12% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.4% -14.4% 12% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 20 -3.3% -12.5% 15% 5% -10.6%
≤90d 20 -3.3% -12.5% 15% 5% -10.6%
all 51 -1.0% -10.5% 27% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage291d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $33 −$4 -11%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $19 −$4 -23%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $4 −$1 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $14 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $39 −$7 -18%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $5 −$1 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $32 +$13 +41%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 23 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in Augus Sep 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Sep 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 10 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $18 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $8 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $6 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $8 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $10 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $41 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $2 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $7 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $32 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $40 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records