Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f59…c2f7 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%16W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,236
7 days−$1,236
14 days−$1,236
30 days−$1,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -16.6% -24.5% 32% 32% -61.4%
≤30d 31 -16.6% -24.5% 32% 32% -61.4%
≤90d 31 -16.6% -24.5% 32% 32% -61.4%
all 58 -33.1% -39.5% 28% 28% -61.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 28% -61.3%
10% -45.3% 26% -65.0%
15% -50.6% 26% -68.4%
20% -55.4% 26% -71.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$51 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses16 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage114d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $236 −$229 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $721 −$700 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$65 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$37 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$45 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$43 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$132 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$60 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$41 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$15 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$48 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$78 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4AM ET Feb 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 25 $41 +$35 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 25 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 25 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET Feb 25 $13 +$37 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4PM ET Feb 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $236 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $721 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $81 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $170 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $79 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $38 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $19 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $38 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records