Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6F 0x6f56…61ce politics 18 markets active 7d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$4
sports 18% −$1
other 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage135d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $400 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $300 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $314 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $375 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $399 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $381 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $291 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $1,444 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $360 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $281 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $187 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $239 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 6d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 21d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 21d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 21d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 78d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 84d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $16 84d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 94d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $400 123d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 123d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $300 125d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 125d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 125d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 126d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $375 126d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $375 126d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $399 126d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $399 127d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $381 128d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $381 129d
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $291 131d
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $291 131d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 131d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 132d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $251 132d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 133d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $360 135d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $360 135d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $395 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.20 · official $5.20 (match) · 95 history records