Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6F 0x6f56…2a4a other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$246 (-52%) realized −$242 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$97
14 days−$97
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$127
sports 38% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-68.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -51.5% -56.1% 20% 20% -51.2%
≤30d 7 -65.4% -68.7% 14% 14% -68.2%
≤90d 7 -65.4% -68.7% 14% 14% -68.2%
all 7 -65.4% -68.7% 14% 14% -68.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.7% 14% -68.2%
10% -71.7% 14% -71.2%
15% -74.4% 14% -74.0%
20% -76.9% 14% -76.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$41 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage29d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $33 −$10 -30%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $91 −$90 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $53 +$38 +72%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $80 −$78 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.10 · official $100.10 (match) · 13 history records