Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f54…14e9 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-1%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate73%30W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$3
other 31% +$6
sports 8% −$103
world 8% +$4
tech 4% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -7.5% -16.3% 90% 0% -59.6%
≤90d 28 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 4% -11.2%
all 41 -1.7% -11.0% 73% 2% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -10.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses30 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)41 / 47
History coverage137d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 21? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Suns May 21 $152 −$117 -77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 25 $702 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $406 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $409 +$1 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $49 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 16 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $403 +$2 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $386 +$3 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $64 +$11 +17%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $488 +$4 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $683 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $391 +$2 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $25 $0 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $210 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $601 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $440 +$2 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $8 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $211 +$1 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Mar 11 $105 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $177 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February? Mar 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $328 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of January? Feb 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January? Feb 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 15 $83 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $89 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 25d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 25d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 25d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 80¢ $28 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $63 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $2 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $5 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $2 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $0 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $1 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $25 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $1 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $24 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $35 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.44 · official $44.44 (match) · 375 history records