Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6F 0x6f53…4bcc other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,092 (-12%) realized −$952 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$284
14 days+$284
30 days+$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$685
other 23% −$292
politics 23% −$710
crypto 13% +$474
sports 1% +$50
finance 1% +$52
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.7% +12.9% 67% 67% +43.1%
≤30d 3 +24.7% +12.9% 67% 67% +43.1%
≤90d 11 -33.2% -39.5% 36% 36% -34.4%
all 49 -17.6% -25.5% 45% 39% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 39% -19.9%
10% -32.6% 29% -27.5%
15% -39.1% 16% -34.5%
20% -45.1% 12% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$97 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$952
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 56
History coverage153d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 34¢ 8¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes 40¢ 12¢ $23 $7 −$16 (-70%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 34¢ 1¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$50 +49%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 17 $73 −$47 -65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $314 +$281 +89%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? May 21 $74 −$2 -2%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 02 $700 −$625 -89%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 02 $32 −$32 -100%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $607 −$606 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $518 +$89 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $384 +$135 +35%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Mar 06 $426 −$42 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 01 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $319 +$78 +24%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $38 −$38 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Feb 28 $52 −$16 -31%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $97 −$94 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 28 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 28 $50 −$10 -19%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Feb 15 $91 −$91 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 15 $300 −$300 -100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Feb 15 $500 −$1 -0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $200 −$102 -51%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Feb 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in February? Feb 14 $100 +$30 +30%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 11 $10 +$9 +92%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 11 $50 +$52 +104%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Feb 06 $282 +$18 +6%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Feb 04 $50 +$22 +44%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 04 $250 +$56 +22%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $150 +$46 +31%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open? Feb 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: February Feb 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Feb 03 $500 −$10 -2%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Feb 03 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 02 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 02 $600 +$76 +13%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in January? Jan 31 $100 +$358 +358%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026? Jan 31 $408 +$215 +53%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $200 −$46 -23%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $65 +$6 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $100 +$14 +14%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Jan 29 $100 +$60 +60%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 26 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum? Jan 22 $9 −$9 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
North Korea missile launch by February 28? Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $26 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $594 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $314 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $155 7d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $73 31d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $73 31d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $74 50d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? SELL No 8¢ $75 50d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 22¢ $32 51d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $700 51d
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 77d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $1 77d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 43¢ $607 80d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $607 81d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $518 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL No 95¢ $519 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $384 107d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 52¢ $384 107d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 57¢ $426 112d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $121 112d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $304 112d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $38 113d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? SELL No 57¢ $36 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No 3¢ $3 113d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 83¢ $52 113d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.44 · official $358.44 (match) · 114 history records