Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6F 0x6f4e…abeb other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$53 (+41%) realized +$52 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% +33.3%
≤30d 6 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% +33.3%
≤90d 6 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% +33.3%
all 6 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% +33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 50% +33.3%
10% -15.1% 50% +20.6%
15% -23.3% 50% +8.9%
20% -30.8% 50% -1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$11 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$40 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.00 · official $18.00 (match) · 11 history records