Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f4c…9f7d crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,120 (-43%) realized −$1,120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$52
14 days−$1,284
30 days−$1,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,128
crypto 36% −$149
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 55% -29.6%
≤30d 38 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 47% -54.5%
≤90d 38 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 47% -54.5%
all 38 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 47% -54.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 47% -54.5%
10% -26.4% 47% -58.8%
15% -33.5% 42% -62.8%
20% -40.0% 37% -66.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$83 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $69 −$66 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$18 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$14 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$11 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$8 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$14 +89%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $28 +$13 +48%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $471 −$244 -52%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,044 −$795 -76%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$39 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$41 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$59 +271%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$27 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$19 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$10 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$20 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$5 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$29 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$45 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $69 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $24 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $14 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $19 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 8¢ $7 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $28 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $222 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 39¢ $221 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $250 9d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $250 9d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,044 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $45 9d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 33¢ $103 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $48 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $53 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $35 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $48 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $22 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $49 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records