Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f4a…a398 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$304 (+7%) realized +$357 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%24W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$54
14 days+$407
30 days+$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$126
other 6% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤30d 4 +71.7% +55.4% 75% 75% +74.6%
≤90d 4 +71.7% +55.4% 75% 75% +74.6%
all 64 -9.4% -18.0% 38% 38% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 38% -3.0%
10% -25.8% 38% -12.3%
15% -33.0% 38% -20.7%
20% -39.6% 31% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$44 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$357
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses24 / 40
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage143d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 +$54 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $239 +$201 +84%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $67 +$172 +255%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $156 +$81 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $284 +$188 +66%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $146 +$68 +47%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $260 +$103 +40%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 17 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 08 $29 +$21 +72%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $199 +$133 +66%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 07 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 04 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $20 +$80 +400%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 01 $128 +$56 +44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $58 +$35 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 01 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 01 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Feb 28 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $103 +$88 +85%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 3 Winner Feb 12 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Feb 11 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Feb 11 $35 −$17 -49%
LoL: Dark Passage vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 09 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $4 −$1 -25%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3 Winner Feb 09 $53 −$53 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 3 Winner Feb 08 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Feb 08 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs MVK Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 08 $14 +$12 +85%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO5) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Feb 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $129 +$68 +52%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 07 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Feb 07 $16 +$80 +500%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Feb 07 $106 +$64 +60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Feb 01 $68 −$68 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Feb 01 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Feb 01 $53 −$41 -77%
LoL: MVK Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Jan 31 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 31 $100 +$79 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $112 12h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $18 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $0 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $0 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $0 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 97¢ $440 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 52¢ $239 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 98¢ $240 13d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 27¢ $67 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY G2 Esports 16¢ $11 90d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 2¢ $2 90d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 16¢ $16 90d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $237 90d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $471 90d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $188 90d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $95 90d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 50¢ $156 90d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 6¢ $0 91d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 6¢ $5 91d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 6¢ $1 91d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 52¢ $52 91d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $214 91d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $146 91d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 12¢ $6 91d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 20¢ $10 91d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 46¢ $25 91d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 46¢ $11 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 172 history records