Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6F 0x6f48…dfe5 crypto 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-3%) realized −$41 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%49W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day86.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -27.0% -33.9% 38% 34% -18.9%
≤30d 128 -27.0% -33.9% 38% 34% -18.9%
≤90d 128 -27.0% -33.9% 38% 34% -18.9%
all 128 -27.0% -33.9% 38% 34% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 34% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -40.2% 27% -26.6%
15% -46.0% 22% -33.7%
20% -51.3% 18% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses49 / 79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day86.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 47¢ 10¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$10 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $1.23 (match) · 305 history records