Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6F
0x6f47…34a0
world · 41 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage284d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $79 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +5%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 26% +$2
other 23% $0
politics 20% +$1
sports 18% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 81¢ $38 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $38 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $42 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $42 30h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $35 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $29 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 -1.1% -10.6% 27% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 -1.1% -10.6% 27% 0% -9.3%
all 40 -0.5% -10.0% 28% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.82 · official $14.95 (match) · 130 history records